Thursday Afternoon Roundup

CA-3

Richer Than The Average Bera
The Hotline
Thursday, July 23, 2009

Dr. Ami Bera (D) "was the surprise fundraiser," "changing the landscape" of the primary as the "surprise front-runner." Elk Grove City Councilman Gary Davis (D) "began the race as something of an early favorite..." (The Hotline) subs req

CA-10:

Buchanan gets EMILY's List Endorsement

EMILY’s List, the largest national advocacy and fundraising organization for pro-choice Democratic women running for elected office endorsed Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, D-Alamo, in the 10th Congressional District race.

As the only woman running in the race, the endorsement is not a surprise, but what Emily's list will bring is that extra financial push down the all important home-stretch.

It's beginning to look more and more like she is running the best campaign - hitting the ground hard. She is apparently near 55K doors knocked. I don't see any other campaign having that type of presence on the ground - very important in such a low-turnout election.

CA-45

NRCC adds Mary Bono-Mack to Patriot Program

With Steve Pougnet raising some serious coinage, the NRCC had to put her on their Patriot Program for vulnerable Republican incumbents.

From Roll Call:

According to an NRCC official, the 15 new program members will compete for 10 spots on the next scheduled “Patriot Day” — a single-day fundraising blitz that brought in almost $100,000 in contributions for each of the 10 original Patriot program members when it debuted in June.

Keep an eye out and see if she gets on the "Patriot Day list" - if she doesn't is it a reflection of GOP Activist/Tea Bagger anger over her vote for the Cap and Trade bill?

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CA-48: Campbell Jumps the Shark?

John Campbell gets utterly owned by Tweety, err Chris Matthews on Hardball this evening. Campbell apparently isn't ready for prime time and looks to be challenging Dana Rohrabacher for the title of wingnuttiest Congressman from Orange County.

In a district that Obama did carry (barely), what a great way to fire up your opponent's base and show the DTS voters what a nutjob you truly are.



Update:

These are the people that John Campbell wants to identify himself with.

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CA-33: Democratic Primary Challenger

As was reported in this afternoon's House Race Hotline incumbent Diane Watson looks to be facing a serious primary challenger in Felton Newell.

Newell has a polished web site, but in this district I don't think that's what will make the difference. What will is if Watson retires, and judging by the $27,000 she raised last quarter and only $17,711.66 COH maybe she is. (BTW - Watson paid over 1/3 of the money raised in Q2 quarter to her fundraiser and accounting firm and has debt. Maybe it's time to look for a new fundraiser.)

Newell certainly brings a lot to the table - worked in the Clinton administration, was a student of President Obama's at the University of Chicago Law School and left his corporate law job to work in the LA City Prosecutors office.

After reading that bio maybe Newell knows something we don't: Watson is going to retire. It just seems too convenient otherwise as Rep. Watson from what I can tell hasn't done anything to warrant a primary challenge .

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CA-3: Bera fundraising juggernaut!?

As we are compiling the Q2 totals for the CA House races we're tracking, of the officially filed reports (only 2 so far - everyone else is apparently hiding their cards until the 7/15 deadline) but even with just 2, Bera's stands out - $288,390.

I had read that he said he was going to mine the Indian-American community and looking at the reporting data, Bera wasn't kidding. Lots of family and Californian Indian-Americans. So his low-hanging fruit has given him the start up funds to run a serious primary election.

Supposedly the D-trip told him if he raised XXXX amount they would clear the field. It's doesn't work that way exactly - if he gave them a commitment for a blank check as a self-funder, then that changes the equation. Nonetheless his Q2 amount will definitely raise eyebrows amongst the DC crowd.

Of his numbers 97.5% came from itemized contributions, meaning amounts $200 and above. He double-maxed to his campaign for $4800. His reported expenses were only $1510.12 - his campaign probably did what most do, pay out vendors on the 1st to pump up the COH numbers, but even then if say 30K in start-up costs, still over $250K COH.

Finally in the checking the itemized contributions, my hunch was correct: Bera has a ton of double-maxed donations. Probably 40% fall in that category. What this means if my FEC knowledge is right is that Bera can spend that entire amount in the primary, but if he loses he has to refund his contributors their general election contribution.

Can't wait to see what school-voucher supporter Gary Davis has to report.

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CA-10: Buchanan 20K Doors Knocked?!

Joan Buchanan's blog notes that her campaign has knocked on 20K doors thus far.

From her blog:

We knocked on our 20,000th door in the campaign over the weekend. We are so excited to have such committed volunteers out walking precincts every weekend for Joan. Watch the video of our team celebrating the 20,000th door being knocked here!

Cutting the turf for walkers in such a low turnout election isn't terribly hard, but getting the volunteers to canvass them is. Her coming off a targeted Assembly race last cycle is looking more and more advantageous to her efforts. The only campaign I can see matching this at this point is possibly DeSaulnier.

Video below:

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